雅思阅读 80: The Elusive Fight Against Inflation（与通货膨胀的持久博弈）

改编自 European Central Bank Blog（2026年9月）。雅思阅读 Section 3 难度，约 1050 词。 素材来源：https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2026/html/ecb.blog20260901~8d48e51f14.en.html

Reading Passage

A. Inflation has returned to the headlines in 2026, and at first glance it looks uncomfortably familiar. Prices are rising again, energy bills are climbing, and central banks are being asked what they intend to do about it. To the casual observer, the situation seems a rerun of the surge that followed the pandemic, when inflation in many rich economies peaked near ten per cent. But that resemblance, economists at the European Central Bank warn, is misleading. The two episodes share a starting point — higher energy prices — yet they are driven by fundamentally different forces, and treating them as the same would risk the wrong policy response. Understanding what pushes prices up is as important as knowing how fast they are rising. A rise caused by shortages of supply calls for a different remedy than one caused by consumers spending freely, and mistaking one for the other can either throttle the economy unnecessarily or allow inflation to become deeply entrenched over time.

B. The differences are sharp. The 2021-22 surge was a broad-based storm in which several powerful forces arrived at once. Pandemic lockdowns had snarled supply chains and left factories unable to keep up; as restrictions lifted, consumers spent the savings they had built up; energy prices jumped after Russia invaded Ukraine; and governments added fuel through generous spending while central banks kept borrowing costs low. Energy mattered, but it was only one ingredient among many. By contrast, the rise in 2026 has been driven almost entirely by a single shock: the war in the Middle East, which pushed the price of oil and gas higher and disrupted shipping through a vital chokepoint. Demand, by this reading, is not running wild; households are not spending recklessly; public stimulus is not fuelling the surge. This time, almost the entire inflation pulse traces back to the cost of energy itself. The distinction matters because an energy shock behaves very differently from a spending boom. Higher oil and gas prices act like a tax on every household and firm at once, squeezing real incomes and raising costs across the economy; central banks cannot drill more oil or reopen a blocked shipping lane. Recognising that difference is the first step towards not overreacting to a rise that originates outside the domestic economy rather than from overheating at home.

C. To quantify this, the ECB's economists used a statistical model that separates the contributions of supply shocks, demand shifts and policy. Between January and May 2026, headline inflation in the euro area rose by 1.5 percentage points, climbing from 1.7 per cent to 3.2 per cent. Almost all of that increase came from adverse energy supply shocks. Monetary and fiscal policy, in the same period, exerted only a slight downward pull — a tenth or two of a percentage point each. The 2021-22 episode looked nothing like that. There, energy contributed about 2.4 percentage points, but so-called non-policy demand added another 1.3, supply-chain disruptions added 0.9, and monetary and fiscal stimulus together added roughly 1.5. Roughly ninety per cent of the earlier surge was explained by that broad mixture, in which energy played a role but not an exclusive one.

D. Why does the distinction matter so much for central banks? Because the right reaction depends on what is causing the rise. When demand is too hot, raising interest rates works by cooling spending and taking the heat out of the economy — and the ECB did exactly that, lifting rates forcefully and persistently through 2022 to bring inflation back towards its two-per-cent target. But when inflation is driven mainly by a shortage of energy supply, rate rises cannot produce more oil or gas. Cranking up borrowing costs at full force in response would punish households and firms for a problem they did not create, without actually fixing the root cause. That is why the policy response to the 2026 episode has been more gradual and cautious than the aggressive tightening of four years earlier. A supply-driven rise may even require patience: raising rates too hard risks needlessly weakening growth while the price shock itself eventually fades.

E. The episode carries a broader lesson for anyone trying to read the economy. Inflation is not a single, uniform ailment. It is a symptom whose meaning depends on its source — excess demand, broken supply chains, or a sudden spike in imported energy. Central bankers set their policy rate once, but they must judge which of several competing forces they are facing, and households feel the pain of rising prices regardless of the cause. The risk in 2026 is complacency on the one hand, and overreaction on the other. Doing nothing lets expectations of higher prices become baked into wages and contracts; doing too much inflicts unnecessary unemployment. Whether the more gradual stance proves correct will depend on how long the energy shock lasts, and whether it leaks into other prices and wages. That contagion is the central fear: a one-off jump in the cost of heating can become a lasting rise in the general price level if workers demand compensatory pay rises and firms pass them on, in a self-feeding spiral. For now, at least, the ECB's message is that not every bout of inflation demands the same medicine — and that knowing what is driving prices is the first step towards treating the illness rather than merely suppressing the fever. Households, too, would do well to read the episode calmly. A spike in petrol and heating bills driven by a war is not the same as an economy spiralling into runaway wage and price rises; the right response is patience, not panic, and confidence that the central bank will act if the shock threatens to become embedded in expectations.

Questions 1-4

Choose the correct heading for paragraphs B, C, D and E from the list of headings below.

List of Headings i. Inflation returns — but is it the same old story? ii. Two episodes, two very different drivers iii. The numbers behind the comparison iv. Why the driver dictates the policy response v. The danger of complacency and overreaction vi. The history of central banking over centuries vii. Why energy prices never matter

1. Paragraph B: ____
2. Paragraph C: ____
3. Paragraph D: ____
4. Paragraph E: ____

Questions 5-8

Choose the correct letter, A, B, C or D.

5. According to the ECB, how is 2026 inflation different from the 2021-22 surge? A. It is driven almost entirely by energy supply shocks. B. It is caused mainly by reckless consumer spending. C. It is caused mainly by government stimulus. D. It is essentially identical to the earlier episode.

6. What happened to euro area headline inflation between January and May 2026? A. It fell from 3.2% to 1.7%. B. It rose from 1.7% to 3.2%. C. It remained steady at 2%. D. It reached a new peak of 10%.

7. Why did the ECB raise interest rates forcefully in 2021-22? A. Because demand was too hot and supply was disrupted. B. Because energy was the only factor at work. C. Because there was no inflation to worry about. D. Because unemployment had risen sharply.

8. Why has the 2026 policy response been more gradual? A. Because rate rises cannot directly remedy an energy shortage. B. Because interest rates have no effect on inflation. C. Because the ECB has abandoned its target. D. Because households refuse to borrow any money.

Questions 9-13

Do the following statements agree with the claims of the writer?

Write:

• TRUE if the statement agrees with the information
• FALSE if the statement contradicts the information
• NOT GIVEN if there is no information on this

9. The 2021-22 inflation surge was driven by a broad mixture of factors.
10. In 2026, monetary policy has been the main cause of the rise in inflation.
11. The ECB's inflation target is two per cent.
12. The 2026 energy shock was caused mainly by strong consumer demand.
13. The ECB has cut its policy rate to zero during 2026.

Questions 14-15

Complete the summary below using NO MORE THAN TWO WORDS from the passage.

The 2026 rise in inflation is driven almost entirely by adverse (14) __________ shocks, which is why central banks have responded more (15) __________ than they did in 2021-22.

答案与解析

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